Even if we knew everything about the present, it is impossible to predict what will happen next. We do not live in a universe of rules, but of probabilities.
Predictive modeling, also called predictive analytics, is a mathematical process that seeks to predict future events or outcomes by analyzing patterns that are likely to forecast future results.
In our case we have focused the predictive analysis on the scope of the Comunidad Valenciana, a Spanish region.
We have decided to follow this workline of investigation because during the COVID19 situation we have maintained a close relationship with the local government allowing us access to infection data
Our main achievements with the predictive model are:
Perdón, me he comido una almendra
Epidemiological models are defined as a mathematical or logical representation of the epidemiology of the transmission of the disease and the processes associated with it. These quantitative models give a representation of the dynamics of disease transmission between animals or between groups of animals, in time or space, or both.
Therefore, an epidemiological model facilitates the evaluation of the efficacy of potential measures of control and calculates the future magnitude, duration, and geographic scope of a disease, given the application of specific control measures.
However, in relation to health management, epidemiological models could be further defined broad to include a number of statistical or mathematical models, which are not necessarily limited to describe the spread of the disease. Other aspects that should be considered are, for example, the design of surveillance systems.
Our main achievements with the predictive model are:
Do you have a good eye for safety or are you blinded by bad habits?
Prescriptive models use the knowledge and information gathered by descriptive and predictive analytics techniques, that is, classification, prediction and segmentation, relying on operational research and numbers.
I came a long way, for a long time
Texto descriptivo de que es lo que se ve aqui debajo
Statistics is a science that shows that if my neighbor has two cars and I neither, we both have one
The Covid19ImpactSurvey is one of the world’s largest long-term surveys of public opinion on the impact of Covid-19 on society. It has focused on Spain, Italy, Germany, and Brazil, with more than 350,000 responses, capturing the progression of the epidemic from the peak of March 2020 until the second wave in November 2020. The survey continues with a goal of around 8,000 responses per week.
The preliminary results of the survey (Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain: Large-Scale, Online, Self-Reported Population Survey) have been published in JMIR, the Journal of Medical Internet Research, one of the leading peer-reviewed journals in the field.
The questionnaire is available at covid19impactsurvey.org. It is a short anonymous survey and can be answered in about 5-7 minutes. For more information, please contact survey@ellisalicante.org.
This group is made up of more than twenty experts from the Universities and research centers of the Valencian Community (Spain) and led by Dr. Nuria Oliver. We have all been working intensively since the beginning of the pandemic, altruistically and using the resources available to us in our respective institutions and with the occasional philanthropic collaboration of some companies.
Affiliated with: Ellis Alicante, Universitat Jaume I, Universidad de Alicante, Universidad Miguel Hernández, Universitat Politècnica de València, Universidad Cardenal Herrera CEU.
POLITICO AI: Decoded: How AI is helping fight a pandemic — Europe’s coronavirus app — Insights from Valencia
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